Trump-Zelenskyy-Putin and the Geopolitical Shift

Understanding the Global Fractal at Play – 20/02/2025

Introduction: Beyond the Surface Narrative

The geopolitical landscape is once again shifting as tensions between the United States, Ukraine, and Russia take center stage. U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest remarks, branding Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy a "dictator" and suggesting that Ukraine is responsible for Russia’s 2022 invasion, signal a dramatic escalation in the rhetoric and power plays at hand.

However, to understand what is truly happening, we must remove emotional bias and analyze the structural motivations behind these actions. Each leader—Trump, Zelenskyy, and Putin—is operating within a larger fractal pattern of expansion, contraction, friction, and transformation. What appears to be a simple clash of ideologies is, in reality, a complex interplay of national interests, historical context, and systemic survival.

This analysis dissects the true motivations behind each leader’s actions, their strategic positioning, and what this means on both a macro and micro level.

Trump: The Power Play for American Hegemony

What is Trump Doing?

Trump’s recent attacks on Zelenskyy are not random outbursts but calculated moves that align with his broader geopolitical strategy. By casting doubt on Ukraine’s leadership and the U.S. aid provided to the country, Trump is strategically:

• Positioning the U.S. as a peace broker while simultaneously reducing financial commitments to foreign conflicts.
• Appealing to his domestic base by framing Ukraine as a "bad investment" that has drained American resources.
• Rebuilding U.S.-Russia relations in a way that aligns with his "America First" ideology.

Trump’s Motivations & What He Gains

• Pro: Trump’s approach signals a shift from interventionist foreign policy, potentially reducing unnecessary U.S. military engagements.
• Pro: The U.S. gains leverage in future peace talks by negotiating directly with Russia instead of supporting Ukraine unconditionally.
• Con: Undermining Ukraine’s leadership could weaken U.S. influence in Eastern Europe, emboldening Russian expansionism.
• Con: If Trump cuts off aid to Ukraine, it could result in the country falling under greater Russian influence, potentially diminishing U.S. global dominance.

What Phase is Trump Representing?

• Expansion (domestically) – Strengthening his political power by presenting himself as the leader who will "end the war."
• Contraction (internationally) – Retreating from global commitments to focus inward on U.S. economic and political consolidation.
• Friction – Directly challenging NATO alliances and previous U.S. foreign policy norms.

Zelenskyy: Fighting for Ukraine’s Sovereignty

What is Zelenskyy Doing?

Zelenskyy’s response to Trump’s claims—stating that the U.S. president is trapped in a "Russian disinformation bubble"—is a direct attempt to:

• Maintain Western support at a critical time when U.S. aid is being questioned.
• Push back against Trump’s narrative that Ukraine is responsible for the war.
• Reassert his legitimacy as Ukraine’s leader, countering claims that he is undemocratic.

Zelenskyy’s Motivations & What He Gains

• Pro: His response reassures European allies that Ukraine is still aligned with Western democratic values.
• Pro: Publicly confronting Trump signals to Ukrainian citizens that their leader will not be intimidated.
• Con: Engaging in direct conflict with Trump risks alienating the U.S., which remains Ukraine’s primary military and economic supporter.
• Con: If U.S. aid is cut off, Ukraine may struggle to sustain its defense, forcing it into difficult negotiations with Russia.

What Phase is Zelenskyy Representing?

• Friction – Fighting against misinformation and external threats to Ukraine’s sovereignty.
• Contraction – Struggling with reduced external support as political alliances shift.

Putin: Strategic Patience and Long-Term Gains

What is Putin Doing?

Putin’s response to Trump’s comments has been one of quiet approval, stating that Trump has begun receiving "objective information" about the war. This response serves multiple purposes:

• Legitimizing Trump’s stance that Ukraine bears responsibility for the conflict.
• Positioning Russia as a key player in future peace negotiations.
• Waiting for the West to fracture in its support for Ukraine, allowing Russia to solidify territorial gains.

Putin’s Motivations & What He Gains

• Pro: Trump’s skepticism toward Ukraine benefits Russia by weakening Western unity.
• Pro: If Trump cuts aid to Ukraine, Russia could gain significant leverage in dictating the terms of any peace agreement.
• Con: Aligning too closely with Trump could backfire if Trump’s policy shifts unpredictably.
• Con: Russia’s continued aggression could further isolate it from the global economy, leading to long-term economic stagnation.

What Phase is Putin Representing?

• Expansion – Strengthening Russia’s geopolitical influence as Western alliances weaken.
• Integration – Calculating the best moment to negotiate from a position of power.

The Bigger Picture: Where Is This Leading?

This geopolitical struggle is a reflection of a larger systemic pattern. Trump, Zelenskyy, and Putin are not acting in isolation but are part of a macro-cycle of global power shifts.

• The U.S. is contracting inward, shifting from global interventionism to national self-interest.
• Ukraine is in a state of friction, caught between two major powers, struggling for sovereignty.
• Russia is expanding strategically, taking advantage of internal Western conflicts to strengthen its position.

These cycles mirror previous historical shifts where great powers redefined their roles on the world stage. This is not just about war—it is about the rebalancing of global power.

The Unfolding of a Fractal Shift

None of these leaders are operating in a vacuum, and none of them are purely "good" or "bad." They are acting in alignment with the forces of expansion, contraction, friction, and transformation. Understanding these patterns allows us to see beyond surface-level narratives and into the deeper, structural forces at play.

As we track these shifts, the key question is: Will this lead to a new global equilibrium, or are we on the verge of a larger geopolitical crisis?

Only time will tell, but one thing is clear—the current order is crumbling, and a new paradigm is emerging.

Sources & Further Reading

1. Geopolitical Trends & Shifts – Council on Foreign Relations
2. Ukraine-Russia Conflict Analysis – Institute for the Study of War
3. US Foreign Policy in 2025 – Brookings Institution
4. Putin’s Long-Term Strategy – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace